Moody yamanuye igipimo cyinguzanyo muri Amerika ashyira igitutu kumuringa na aluminiyumu nibisabwa, kandi ibyuma bizajya he?

Moody yamanuye imyumvire ku bijyanye n’inguzanyo z’igenga z’Amerika ku rwego rwo hejuru, bituma havuka impungenge zikomeye ku isoko ku bijyanye n’ubukungu bw’ubukungu ku isi. Nka mbaraga nyamukuru zitera ibicuruzwa, ibicuruzwa biteganijwe ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi muri Amerika hamwe n’igitutu cy’imisoro y’imari byatumye habaho ihagarikwa ry’ibice bibiri, bituma igitutu cy’igihe gito ku isoko ry’umuringa na aluminium. Nubwo igabanuka ry’imibare y’amadolari y’Amerika ryatanze inkunga ku biciro, gukaza umurego mu kwivuguruza kw'ibisabwa no guhuza politiki idashidikanywaho byongereye cyane ihindagurika ry'ibiciro by'ibyuma.

Uruhande rusabwa: Resonance hagati yo kugabanya ibikorwa remezo no kubuza kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze.

Kugabanuka kw'urwego rw’inguzanyo muri Amerika bigira ingaruka ku buryo butaziguye ku biteganijwe gushora imari mu bikorwa remezo, kandi umushinga w'itegeko ry’ibikorwa remezo byateganijwe na miliyari 500 z'amadolari y'Amerika ashobora guhatirwa gusubira inyuma, bigatuma igabanuka ry'umuringa ryubakwa kuri toni 120000 kugeza 150000 ku mwaka. Muri icyo gihe, umukino w’ibiciro hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika ukomeje kwiyongera, ibihuha bivuga ko Amerika iteganya gushyiraho umusoro wa 25% ku muringa na aluminium yatumijwe mu mahanga. Ibi bizamura ibiciro byinganda zo murugo muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika kandi bigabanye icyifuzo cyibicuruzwa bitunganijwe bitumizwa mu mahanga nka profile ya aluminium nu muringa. Niba ingamba z’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi zashyizwe mu bikorwa, ubucuruzi bwa aluminiyumu ku isi bushobora guhura n’ivugurura, n’Ubushinwaaluminium yohereza hanzei Burayi irashobora guhura n’igiciro cy’inyongera cya 10%.

Uruhande rutanga: Umukino hagati yo kugabanya umusaruro no gusubukura urakomera.

Impungenge z’ibicuruzwa by’umuringa zirakomeje, aho umusaruro wa Codelco wo muri Chili wagabanutseho 18% umwaka ushize mu gihembwe cya mbere, naho ikirombe cy’umuringa cya Las Bambas cya Peru kigabanya umusaruro 30% kubera imyigaragambyo y’abaturage. Nyamara, kurangiza kubungabunga uruganda rukora ibicuruzwa byatumye mu kwezi kwa Mata hiyongeraho 0.37% ukwezi. Ku bijyanye na aluminium ya electrolytike, kongera ingufu z'amashanyarazi muri Yunnan byatumye ubushobozi bwo kongera umusaruro bugera kuri toni miliyoni 43.64. Icyakora, kwamburwa uruhushya rwo kohereza ibicuruzwa muri Gineya ya bauxite byateje impungenge ku itangwa ry’ibikoresho fatizo, bituma ibiciro bya alumina byiyongera ku gipimo cya 12% ku munsi umwe ndetse n’inkunga yatanzwe igera kuri 17800 yu / toni. Twabibutsa ko ibarura ry'umuringa wa LME ryiyongereye kugera kuri toni 187000, mu gihe ibarura rya aluminiyumu riguma ku rwego rwo hejuru rwa toni 550000. Umuvuduko wibarura utarashyirwa ahagaragara.

Igiciro na Politiki: Ingaruka Zinzibacyuho Yingufu Kubiciro Logic

Ihinduka ry’ingufu ku isi ryihuta kandi rigabanya ubukene bw’amabuye gakondo. Kuzamura uburyo bw’ibiciro by’ibiciro by’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byatumye ibiciro byo gushonga bya aluminiyumu byiyongera 8-10%, kandi umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bwa aluminiyumu ukenera amafoto y’amashanyarazi ushobora kugabanuka uva kuri 25% ukagera kuri 15%. Ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro w'amavuta ya shale muri Amerika bwatumye ibiciro by'ingufu bigabanuka, kandi ikigo cy’ibiciro cya aluminium ya electrolytike cyamanutse kugera kuri $ 2500 / toni. Ariko, gukaza politiki y’ibidukikije birashobora kuzamura amafaranga yakoreshejwe mu mishinga mishya yo kubaka mu mahanga. Imbere mu gihugu, politiki y’inganda zikoreshwa mu kongera umusaruro zashimangiwe, hagamijwe kongera umubare w’umuringa ukoreshwa kugeza kuri 40% mu 2025, ibyo bikaba bishobora guhindura uburyo bwo gutanga umuringa ku isi mu gihe kirekire.

Icyerekezo cy'ejo hazaza: Amahirwe yuburyo munsi yo kuzamuka kwinshi.

Ibiciro byumuringa mugihe gito birashobora kugerageza inkunga kuri 77500 Yuan / toni, amasezerano nyamukuru ya Shanghai Aluminium yibanze kumarushanwa ya marike 20000. Niba politiki yo gushimangira ibikorwa remezo muri Amerika idahuye n'ibiteganijwe, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’ibikenerwa mu muringa mu gihembwe cya gatatu urashobora kuvugururwa ukagera kuri 1.8%, kandi ibiciro bya aluminiyumu bizahura n’igabanuka ry’igiciro cy’amadolari 2500-2600 kuri toni. Tanga ibitekerezo ku bimenyetso bibiri by'ingenzi: 1) niba ibarura ry'umuringa wa LME ryaragabanutse munsi ya toni 150000; 2) Ese ibyateganijwe muri Banki nkuru yigihugu igabanya igipimo cyinyungu mbere yigihe giteganijwe kubera imibare yubukungu yifashe nabi. Urwego rwinganda rugomba kuba maso kubyerekeye ingaruka ziterwa nuruzitiro rwinshi. Abashoramari barashobora kwitondera uburyo butandukanye bwo gukemura ibibazo no gufata idirishya ryumuringa wa aluminium.

Umwanzuro: Kumenyekanisha Inganda Zinganda Zidashidikanywaho.

Kugabanuka kw'amanota ahanini ni microcosm yo kunanirwa kw'imiyoborere y’ubukungu ku isi, kandi isoko ry’umuringa na aluminiyumu ririmo guhinduka mu biciro bivuye ku “guhangana n’ibisabwa” bikajya “kugabanuka kw'ibiciro”. Abashoramari bakeneye guca mu mutego w’igihe gito w’imihindagurikire, bakibanda ku nzira ndende yo guhindura ingufu no kuvugurura amasoko, no gufata amahirwe y’ubucuruzi yazanywe n’ivuguruzanya ry’imiterere mu ihindagurika.