Umwotsi uturuka mu nzira ya Hormuz uri guteza ingaruka zikomeye ku nganda zikora ku isi. Ku ruhande rumwe, hari "tsunami y'ikiguzi" iterwa no guhagarika itangwa rya aluminiyumu ikoreshwa mu buryo bwa electrolytic, naho ku rundi ruhande, hari "inyungu ku giciro" iterwa no kuzamuka kwa peteroli. Iyo ibiciro bya aluminiyumu bishobora kugera ku madolari 4000 kuri toni kandi ibiciro bya peteroli bikiyongera bigatuma imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi ziba ahantu heza, isoko rishya ry'imodoka zikoresha ingufu mu 2026 rihagaze mu nzira idasanzwe: ikiguzi kirimo "gutakaza amaraso" naho uruhande rw'abasaba "kwishima". Ni nde uzatanga amafaranga mu mpera z'uyu mukino?
1. Guturika kw'imitsi ya aluminiyumu: gutinda gushoka kw'imitsi
Niba peteroli ari yo maraso y'inganda za none, noneho "aluminium" ni igishishwa cyoroheje. Muri iki gihe, 'imitsi' y'iki gishishwa, Strait of Hormuz, ihura n'akaga ko gucika burundu.
Umuburo wa Wang Yiwen, umusesenguzi wa Guangfa Futures, si ugukabya. Uko ibintu bigenda birushaho kwiyongera mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, ibihugu nka Leta Zunze Ubumwe z'Abarabu na Irani, bishingiye cyane kuri alumina itumizwa mu mahanga, bishobora gutegekwa gukurikiza urugero no kugabanya umusaruro mu byumweru bibiri cyangwa bitatu biri imbere. Ibi si uguhagarika by'igihe gito gusa, ahubwo ni no guhungabana kw'ingufu ku buryo budasubirwaho.
Igihe kiratinda: Iyo ikigega cya aluminiyumu gifunzwe, gutangira kongera gukoresha bishobora gufata amezi 6-12. Ibi bivuze ko nubwo amahoro yaza mu cyumweru gitaha, icyuho cy’ingufu za aluminiyumu ku isi mu 2026 cyamaze kugaragara.
Ubunini bw'icyuho: Itangwa ry'ibicuruzwa mu mahanga rishobora kwiyongera nabi, kandi icyuho cy'ibikenewe ku isoko ku isi gishobora kwiyongera ako kanya kikagera ku rwego rwa toni miliyoni.
Igiciro ntarengwa cyashyizwe ahagaragara: iyo habayeho imbaraga zikomeye, igiciro cya aluminiyumu cya LME kingana na $3700 ~ $4000 kuri toni ntabwo kikiri inzozi, ahubwo ni ukuri gushoboka cyane.
Ku nganda zikora, iki si igikorwa cyo gukoresha ikoranabuhanga gusa, ahubwo ni no guhindura ikiguzi cya zahabu nyayo na feza.
2. Imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu: ikiguzi kigenwa na "aluminium" n'ibikenewe biterwa na "peteroli"
Muri iki gihe cy’umuyaga, inganda nshya z’ibinyabiziga bikoresha ingufu zabaye itsinda rivuguruzanya cyane: ni ryo ryagize ingaruka zikomeye ku izamuka ry’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ndetse rikaba n’inyungu nini ku izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli.
1. Ikiguzi: Buri modoka ifite amayuni 760 y'inyongera y'umusoro w'intambara
Kuba imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu zitanga umusaruro mwinshi byatumye ziba izikoresha aluminiyumu cyane. Amakuru agaragaza ko imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu zikoresha aluminium irenga ibiro 200 kuri buri modoka, hafi inshuro ebyiri ugereranyije n’izikoresha imodoka zisanzwe zikoresha lisansi.Aloyi ya aluminiyumuikwirakwizwa cyane mu miterere y'umubiri w'imodoka, mu dusanduku twa bateri, mu dusanduku tw'amapine, no mu buryo bwo gucunga ubushyuhe.
Reka tubare konti:
Iyo bibazwe hashingiwe ku izamuka riherutse rya Yuan 3800 kuri toni mu biciro bya aluminiyumu ugereranije n'igiciro mpuzandengo cyo mu 2025, kuri buri modoka ikoresha amashanyarazi ikozwe, ikiguzi cy'ibikoresho fatizo byonyine kiziyongeraho Yuan 760 mu buryo butaziguye.
Ku bigo by’imodoka bigurisha imodoka miliyoni imwe buri mwaka, bivuze ko amafaranga y’inyongera azakoreshwa agera kuri miliyoni 800 z’amayuani.
Ku bigo bito n'ibiciriritse by'imodoka bifite inyungu nke, iyi yuan 760 ishobora kuba ari yo ntandaro ya nyuma yo kumena umugongo w'ingamiya, ikagabanya ahantu ho gutura hasanzwe hato ndetse igateza ikibazo cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa.
2. Uruhande rw'ibikenewe: "Impinduka zidashoboka" zatewe n'ibiciro bya peteroli byazamutse 100%
Ariko, urundi ruhande rw'isoko rurashyushye. Ibiciro bya peteroli ya Brent byarenze $110 kuri buri kirahuri, kandi imibare ihindagurika ku masitasiyo ya lisansi yabaye ibyapa byiza cyane ku modoka zikoresha amashanyarazi.
Ibintu birimo kuba kuva Manila kugera Hanoi:
Manila, muri Filipine: Matthew Dominique Poh, uhagarariye ubucuruzi mu kigo cy’ubucuruzi cya BYD, yavuze ko ingano y’ibicuruzwa byatumijwe mu byumweru bibiri bishize ingana n’iy’ukwezi gushize. “Abakiriya barimo gusimbuza imodoka zikoresha lisansi n’izikoresha amashanyarazi,” nk’uko yabivuze. “Ibiciro bya peteroli birahenze cyane.”
Hanoi, Viyetinamu: Isura ry'abakiriya mu cyumba cy'imurikagurisha cya VinFast ryikubye gatatu. Mu byumweru bitatu nyuma y'intambara itangiye, iduka ryagurishije imodoka 250 zikoresha amashanyarazi, aho impuzandengo y'igurishwa ry'imodoka zisaga 80 buri cyumweru, bingana na kabiri urwego rw'impuzandengo mu 2025.
Albert Park, Umuyobozi Mukuru w’Ubukungu muri Banki Iterambere ry’Aziya, yavuze cyane ati: “Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli ryagiye riba ingirakamaro mu guhindura imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi. Bishobora gutuma habaho inkunga mu bukungu kugira ngo byihutishe iyi mpinduka ku bidukikije.
Uku ni ukuri gutangaje kuri ubu: abaguzi bagura imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi kuko batinya ibiciro bya lisansi biri hejuru, ariko amasosiyete y'imodoka ahangayikishijwe n'igiciro kinini cya aluminiyumu ikoreshwa mu gukora imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi.
3. Umukino wimbitse: Ese izamuka ry'ibiciro rizaza?
Ese ibiciro by'imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu biziyongera? Igisubizo gishobora kuba atari 'yego' cyangwa 'oya', ahubwo ni uguhindura imiterere y'imodoka mu buryo butandukanye.
1. Ibigo byo mu rwego rwo hejuru: Kohereza ibiciro no kubungabunga ibiciro by'igiciro cyinshi
Ku bigo bikomeye by’imodoka bifite imiyoboro ikomeye y’ibirango n’ibiciro byabyo (nk’ibicuruzwa bya Tesla, BYD, ibirango by’akataraboneka), izamuka ry’ibiciro rya yuan 760 rishobora kwinjizwamo neza binyuze mu guhindura igiciro cyo kugurisha cyangwa kunoza imiterere yabyo. Ukurikije ibiciro biri hejuru bya peteroli, abaguzi ntibakunze cyane igiciro cya yuan ibihumbi bike kandi bashyira imbaraga nyinshi ku giciro cyose cyo gutunga (TCO) mu gihe cyose cy’ubuzima bwabo. Izamuka ry’ibiciro rishobora gupfukiranwa n’ubwinshi bw’abaguzi.
2. Ingufu zo hagati n'iziciriritse n'izindi nshya: igitutu cy'inyungu, impinduka ku buzima n'urupfu
Ku bigo bito n'ibiciriritse by'imodoka byibanda ku kugabanya ikiguzi kandi byishingikiriza ku nyungu nto kugira ngo bigurishe vuba, ibintu birakomeye cyane. Nta bubasha bafite bwo gushyikirana buhagije bwo gushyira igitutu ku nganda za aluminiyumu zo mu misozi miremire, cyangwa ngo batinyuke kuzamura ibiciro byoroshye kugira ngo batere ubwoba abakiriya bakomeye ku biciro.
Isoza rya A: Kwigomwa inyungu n'ikiguzi cyo kuzigama, bigatera igabanuka rya raporo z'imari n'ingorane mu bijyanye n'imari.
Ingaruka B: Guca intege no kugabanya ikoreshwa rya aluminiyumu, ariko ibi bishobora kugira ingaruka ku mutekano w'ibinyabiziga n'uburyo bikoreshwa, ndetse bikangiza izina ry'ikirango.
Iherezo rya C: Bahatiwe kuvanwaho. Iki cyiciro cy' "igiciro cya aluminiyumu + igiciro cya peteroli" gishobora kwihutisha ivugurura ry'inganda no gukuraho itsinda ry'abakinnyi bafite ubushobozi buke bwo kwirinda ibyago.
3. 'Iburasirazuba ntabwo burabagirana, Uburengerazuba burabagirana' mu ruhererekane rw'inganda
Ni ngombwa kumenya ko nubwo ikiguzi cyo gukora imodoka zuzuye cyiyongereye, amasosiyete acuruza aluminiyumu n'amasosiyete acuruza imodoka ahujwe afite amasoko yayo ya aluminiyumu bizakungukira cyane. Amasosiyete afite ibirombe byo mu mahanga n'inganda zuzuye imbere mu gihugu azafata inyungu nyinshi muri iki kibazo, birusheho kwagura icyuho hagati y'abanywanyi.
4. Umwanzuro: 'Urufunguzo rw'umuvuduko' mu bihe bikomeye
Imbunda z'intambara mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati zakandagiye butunguranye buto "yo kwihutisha" kugira ngo habeho impinduka ku isi mu bijyanye n'ingufu.
Nubwo izamuka ry’igiciro cya aluminiyumu ryateje ingaruka mbi inganda zikora ndetse rikanatera ihindagurika ry’ibiciro mu gihe gito ndetse n’ifungwa ry’ibigo byigenga, mu buryo bwagutse, ibiciro by’ingufu za kera biri gukosora cyane ukwishingikiriza ku ngufu gakondo ku bantu hakoreshejwe imbaraga zidasanzwe.
Izamuka ry’ikiguzi cya yuan 760 rirababaje, ariko iyo imibare yo kuri sitasiyo za lisansi ituma abantu bashidikanya, iyi konti yamaze kugira igisubizo mu mitwe y’abaguzi. Ku nganda nshya zikora ibinyabiziga bitanga ingufu, iki gishobora kuba "ubuvuzi bwo gukata amagufwa":
Mu gihe gito, ni umukino ukomeye w'ikiguzi n'inyungu;
Mu gihe kirekire, ni imbarutso yo kongera ubwinshi bw'inganda no kongera ikoranabuhanga (nk'imashini za aluminiyumu zitagira ubushyuhe bwinshi hamwe n'ikoranabuhanga rihuriweho ryo gukata kugira ngo bigabanye ikiguzi cya aluminiyumu).
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-26-2026