Isoko rya Aluminium Inganda 2025: Amahirwe yuburyo nu mukino wibyago munsi ya Politiki Rigid

Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’imihindagurikire ikaze ku isoko ry’ibyuma ku isi, inganda za aluminiyumu zagaragaje imiterere yihariye yo kurwanya sikeli bitewe n’imbogamizi zikomeye za politiki y’ubushobozi bw’Ubushinwa no gukomeza kwagura ingufu nshya. Mu 2025, isoko ry’iki cyuma cy’ibikorwa bigenda bihinduka cyane, kubera ko ubushobozi bw’umusaruro bugabanuka, guhindura ingufu, hamwe na politiki ya geopolitike byavanze, bigashyiraho uburyo bushya bw’ishoramari mu gihe cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa bikenewe.

Gukomera kwa politiki byubaka hasi, byerekana ingaruka z’ubushobozi bw’ubushinwa.

Kuva ishyirwa mu bikorwa rya toni miliyoni 45 / yumwaka umurongo utukura muri 2017, igipimo cyo gukoresha ingufu za aluminium electrolytique mu Bushinwa kigeze ku gaciro kangana na 98%. Kugeza muri Werurwe 2025, umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu wageze kuri toni miliyoni 45.17, kandi uduce dukungahaye ku mashanyarazi nka Yunnan na Mongoliya Imbere hahindutse intambara nyamukuru yo gusimbuza ubushobozi. Twabibutsa ko imbogamizi z’ibihe ku itangwa ry’amashanyarazi mu karere ka Yunnan zagiye zigaragara cyane - kugabanya umusaruro mu gihe cyizuba bishobora kugira ingaruka kuri 20% by’ubushobozi bw’igihugu. Ubu buryo bwo gutanga “ikirere bushingiye ku kirere” bwatumye toni miliyoni itangwa n’ibisabwa ku masoko yaho. Muri icyo gihe kandi, kwagura ubushobozi bw’umusaruro mu mahanga biragoye, mu gihe Uburayi bwasubukuye buhoro buhoro umusaruro bitewe n’ibiciro by’ingufu nyinshi, ndetse n’ibihugu nk’Ubuhinde n’Uburusiya bigerageza gukemura ikibazo cy’ibicuruzwa bitangwa ku isi byatewe n’ubushobozi bw’Ubushinwa.

Impinduka zubaka kuruhande rusabwa, hamwe ningendo nshya yingufu ziba moteri yibanze.

Uruhande rusabwa rugaragaza "inzira ebyiri": mu bice gakondo, politiki yo gushimangira ibikorwa remezo by’Ubushinwa iteza imbere ubwiyongere bw’ibikenerwa bya aluminiyumu ku bikorwa remezo nka ultra-high voltage na transit ya gari ya moshi. Biteganijwe ko igipimo cyo gukoresha aluminiyumu mubice bifitanye isano kiziyongera kugera kuri 15% muri 2025; Mubice bigenda bigaragara, uburemere bwibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi no kwagura ubushobozi bwamafoto yashizwemo nibyo byingenzi byiyongera. Amakuru yerekana ko gukoresha aluminiyumu ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu kuri buri kinyabiziga byiyongereyeho inshuro 2-3 ugereranije n’ibinyabiziga gakondo bya peteroli, kandi buri mwaka umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’imikoreshereze ya aluminiyumu ku mafoto ya fotora na brake bigera kuri 26%. Ikigaragara cyane ni uko ingaruka zo gusimbuza aluminium muguhindura ingufu zigenda zigaragara buhoro buhoro, kandi ubworoherane hamwe nibyiza byoroheje bigenda byangiza isoko ryibikoresho byumuringa. JPMorgan iteganya ko umuvuduko ukabije wa aluminiyumu ku isi uzagera kuri 4% muri 2025, urenze cyane umuringa wa 2,1%.

Kwiyongera kwimikino yibiciro no kugaragara kwamahirwe yimiterere hagati yinyeganyeza.

Igikorwa kiriho cyibiciro bya aluminiyumu kirerekana ibintu bitatu byingenzi: icya mbere, ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ya LME bihindagurika hagati y $ 2700-2900 / toni, bikagaragaza intambara hagati yintambara zitangwa no kutamenya neza macro; Icya kabiri, igiciro cyimbere muri aluminium ya Shanghai gishyigikirwa no gutegereza ibihano by’umusaruro muri Yunnan, kandi ikimenyetso cya 20000 cyibanze ku mikino ndende ngufi; Icya gatatu, ihindagurika ry'ibiciro bya alumina ryarushijeho kwiyongera, kandi kwiyongera k'umusaruro wa bauxite muri Gineya byateje uruzitiro rwo gukumira ibidukikije mu ngo. Icyitegererezo cya Morgan Stanley cyerekana ko mugihe habaye ikibazo gikomeye cyo gutanga amasoko, ibiciro bya aluminiyumu bishobora gucika $ 3000 / toni, mugihe ubukungu bwifashe nabi ku isi bushobora kugera ku rwego rw’imitekerereze ya $ 2000.

Kuzamura matrix ibyago, ibintu bine byingenzi bigomba gukurikiranirwa hafi

Ingingo enye zingenzi zishobora kwitonda mugihe ushora imari munganda za aluminium.

Kimwe muri byo ni uguhindura politiki y’ubushobozi bw’Ubushinwa, ikeneye kwita ku guhagarika ingufu zikoresha ingufu nyinshi zikoreshwa n’ubucuruzi bw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.

Iya kabiri ni ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ingufu ku isi, kandi ikibazo cya gaze gasanzwe y’iburayi hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’amashanyarazi ya Yunnan kuva mu gihe cyizuba kugeza igihe cyumye bishobora gutera ihungabana.

Icya gatatu, hari impinduka muri politiki yubucuruzi, kandi hari ibyago byo kongera imisoro y’Amerika ku bicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu biva mu Bushinwa.

Iya kane ningaruka zo gukurura urwego rwimitungo itimukanwa, kandi guhindura isoko ryimitungo yubushinwa bishobora gutera igabanuka rya 8% -10% mukeneye aluminium yubaka.

Igitekerezo cyingamba: Sobanukirwa neza kandi wirinde ingaruka zubaka

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2. Imiterere yinzira nshya yingufu: Icyambere kizahabwa abatanga ibikoresho byongerewe agaciro nkibikoresho bifotora hamwe na trayeri ya batiri.

3. Amahirwe yo gukingira: Funga inyungu ziva muri electrolytikeumusaruro wa aluminiummugihe cya alumina igiciro cyo gukosora.

4. Kurinda ingaruka za geopolitiki: Witondere iterambere ryimishinga ya Gineya bauxite kandi wirinde ingaruka zituruka kumasoko imwe.

Uhagaze kuri 2025, isoko rya aluminiyumu rihinduka kuva mubicuruzwa gakondo byizunguruka bigera kubikoresho bigenda bigaragara. Imbaraga zihoraho za politiki y’ubushobozi bw’ubushinwa no guteza imbere cyane impinduka z’ingufu ku isi byatumye iki cyuma cyihanganira ifaranga kandi kikaba gifite iterambere ryinshi. Abashoramari bakeneye gushakisha uburyo bwiza bwo kugaruza ingaruka zishobora kugabanywa muri gahunda-eshatu zifatika zo gukomera kwa politiki, umutekano w’ingufu, no guhindura impinduka.