Ku ya 27 Gicurasi 2025, Komisiyo ishinzwe kugenzura impapuro z’agaciro mu Bushinwa yemeje ku mugaragaro iyandikwaaluminiumahazaza hamwe nuburyo bwo guhanahana amakuru ka Shanghai, biranga ibicuruzwa byambere byigihe kizaza kwisi hamwe na aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa nkibyingenzi byinjira mumasoko akomoka mubushinwa. Iki gipimo ntikizahindura gusa uburyo bwo kugena ibiciro byuruganda rwa aluminiyumu, ahubwo birashobora no kuba igikoresho cyingenzi cyimari cyoguteza imbere impinduka nke za karubone zinganda za aluminium.
Ingaruka zikomeye kumurongo wa aluminium
Iterambere muguhuza inganda za Aluminiyumu zongeye gukoreshwa
Nk’umusaruro munini ku isi kandi ukoresha ibinini bya aluminiyumu (hamwe na toni miliyoni 6.2 n’ikoreshwa rya toni miliyoni 6.73 mu 2024), inganda za aluminiyumu zongeye gukoreshwa mu Bushinwa zimaze igihe kinini zihura n’ububabare bw’uburyo bwo kugena ibiciro. Cheng Huawei, umuyobozi w’ibiro by’ubunyamabanga bw’itsinda ry’ibikoresho bishya bya Guangdong Hongjin, yagaragaje ko abakiriya bo mu nsi yo hasi bakeneye cyane ibicuruzwa byo gufunga ibiciro, ariko kubera kutagira ubwoko butandukanye bw’ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu, ibigo bishobora kwishingikiriza gusa ku gihe kizaza cya aluminiyumu cyangwa ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mbere yo gufunga ibiciro, bikaviramo ingaruka zo gutandukana n’ibiciro. Itangizwa rya aluminium alloy ejo hazaza izuzuza iki cyuho, igere ku guhuza ibiciro hagati ya aluminiyumu itunganijwe neza na aluminiyumu yambere, kandi iteze imbere inzira yinganda.
Guhanga udushya mu bikoresho byo gucunga ibyago
Urutonde rwigihe kizaza nibikoresho bitanga uburyo bushya kubucuruzi bwinganda za aluminium kugirango hirindwe ihindagurika ryibiciro. Dufashe nk'uruganda rwa aluminiyumu rwakoreshejwe nk'urugero, igipimo cya aluminiyumu isakaye mu bikoresho byayo fatizo irenga 70%, kandi ihindagurika ry'ibiciro by'ibiciro bya aluminiyumu isumba buri gihe kuruta ibya aluminium electrolytike. Binyuze ku isoko ry'ejo hazaza, ibigo birashobora kugeraho:
Hedging: Funga ikiguzi cyo kugura ibikoresho fatizo nigiciro cyo kugurisha ibicuruzwa kugirango wirinde ingaruka ziterwa nihindagurika ryibyuma.
Imicungire y'ibarura: Gukoresha inyemezabuguzi zububiko bwigihe kizaza kugirango ugabanye umuvuduko wibarura ryigihembwe no kwagura inzira zo kugurisha.
Gutera inkunga udushya: Gukoresha inyemezabuguzi zububiko bwigihe kizaza nkingwate kugirango ubone inkunga ihendutse kandi tunoze urwego rwimari.
Umuvuduko muke wa karubone
Gutera aluminiyumu ikoresha cyane cyane ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu nkibikoresho fatizo, kandi kubyara toni 1 ya aluminiyumu itunganijwe neza birashobora kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere hejuru ya 95%, iyi ikaba ari inzira nyamukuru yo guhindura karubone nkeya mu nganda za aluminiyumu ku isi. Wang Jian, Visi Perezida w’ishyirahamwe ry’inganda zidafite ingufu z’Ubushinwa, yashimangiye ko ibikoresho by’ejo hazaza bizayobora igishoro guhurira mu nganda z’icyatsi kibisi, kandi bizihutisha ihinduka ry’inganda nkeya binyuze mu buryo bwo kohereza “kuzamura ibiciro by’ibiciro byo kuzamura inganda”.
Kongera kubaka icyitegererezo cy'isoko ry'ejo hazaza
1. Intambara yo kugena imbaraga
Wang Rong, umuyobozi wungirije w'ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi cya Guotai Junan Futures, atangaza ko urutonde rw’ibizaza bya aluminiyumu ruzahangana n’ibiciro ku isi byiganjemo ibiciro by’i Londere (LME) ku giciro cya aluminium.
Impamvu ni uko:
Umusaruro wa aluminiyumu ukoreshwa mu Bushinwa ugera kuri 57% ku isi yose, kandi ibicuruzwa bizaza byerekana neza icyifuzo ku isoko rya Aziya.
Guhanga udushya mugushushanya ibicuruzwa byatanzwe: Sisitemu yatanzwe yo gutanga ibintu bibiri bya "recycled aluminium ingots + aluminium alloy bar" mugihe cyashize irahuye nibyifuzo bikenerwa ninganda zitunganya Aziya.
Inkunga ya politiki y'inyungu: Mu ntego z’Ubushinwa “dual carbone”, ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu bizishimira imisoro, bizamura ububasha bw’ibiciro by’igihe kizaza.
2. Guhindura imiterere yabitabiriye
Biteganijwe ko isoko ryigihe kizaza ryerekana amatsinda atatu yitabiriye:
Inganda zikora inganda: inganda za aluminiyumu, inganda zitunganya aluminiyumu, inganda zikora ibinyabiziga, nibindi, biteganijwe ko hejuru ya 60%.
Ibigo byishoramari: Amafaranga ya CTA, amafaranga yo gukingira ibicuruzwa, ukoresheje ihindagurika ryibiciro kugirango ubone inyungu.
Abacuruzi bambuka imipaka: Hamwe no kumenyekanisha isoko ry’ejo hazaza h’Ubushinwa, amasosiyete yo mu majyepfo y’iburasirazuba bwa Aziya, Uburasirazuba bwo hagati, n’utundi turere dukoresha aluminiyumu itunganijwe neza bazitabira ubukemurampaka.
Kunoza imikorere yo kuvumbura ibikorwa
Isoko ryibibanza bigezwehoaluminiumibura ibiciro bihuriweho, hamwe nibiciro bitandukanye mukarere bigera kuri 500 Yuan / toni. Nyuma yisoko ryigihe kizaza rimaze gutondekwa, gukorera mu mucyo bizanozwa cyane binyuze mumasoko hamwe no gutanga isoko. Hashingiwe ku bunararibonye bwurutonde rwigihe kizaza, biteganijwe ko ibiciro byigihe kizaza bizaba igipimo cyibiciro hejuru ya 80% yubucuruzi bwa aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa mu myaka 3.
Ubusobanuro bwibikorwa nubushishozi bwinganda
Iparadizo nshya yo gukorera ubukungu nyabwo
Nkuko byavuzwe mu nomero ibanziriza iki, ibishingwe bya aluminium alloy ejo hazaza bizubahiriza umwanya wa "gukorera iterambere ryicyatsi" kandi bigahatira kuzamura inganda hashyirwaho ibipimo ngenderwaho byubuziranenge bwibicuruzwa (nkibirimo umwanda hamwe nubukanishi). Ibi biragaragaza ibyerekezo bya karuboni bisabwa n’umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi Umusoro wa Carbone Border (CBAM) ku bicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu bitumizwa mu mahanga, bifasha inganda za aluminiyumu mu Bushinwa kuzamura guhangana ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Kuvugurura Isoko rya Aluminium Isoko
Ubwiyongere bw'inganda za aluminiyumu zongeye gukoreshwa mu Bushinwa bwongeye kwandika ikarita ya aluminiyumu ku isi. Mu 2024, igipimo cy'umusaruro wa aluminiyumu wongeye gukoreshwa mu Bushinwa na aluminiyumu y'ibanze wageze kuri 22%, mu gihe impuzandengo y'isi ari 15% gusa. Gutezimbere ibikoresho byigihe kizaza bizihutisha iki gikorwa, kandi biteganijwe ko mu 2030, igipimo cy’umusaruro wa aluminiyumu itunganyirizwa mu Bushinwa kizarenga 35%, bikarushaho gukurura umwanya munini w’isoko rya karuboni ya aluminiyumu mu mahanga.
Ibyahishuwe no guhanga udushya
Itangizwa rya aluminium alloy futures ryatanze icyitegererezo cyubucuruzi bwigihe kizaza cyubwoko butandukanye bwicyuma cyongera gukoreshwa, nkumuringa wongeye gukoreshwa na zinc. Ihame ry’ibanze ni ugushyira umutungo “mu bucukuzi bw'amabuye y'agaciro” muri gahunda y'ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa no guteza imbere ubukungu buzenguruka binyuze mu guhanga udushya.
Muri rusange, urutonde rwigihe kizaza cya aluminiyumu n'amahitamo ntabwo ari intambwe nshya ku isoko ry’ibikomoka ku Bushinwa kugira ngo bikorere ubukungu nyabwo, ahubwo ni n'ibikorwa remezo by'imari byo guhindura karuboni nkeya mu nganda za aluminiyumu ku isi. Hamwe no kubaka umuyoboro wububiko bwogutanga no kunoza uburyo bwo gucuruza imipaka yambukiranya imipaka, biteganijwe ko ubwo bwoko buzaba ikigo gikomeye cy’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa bidafite ingufu mu karere ka Aziya, bikavugurura uburyo bwo gukwirakwiza agaciro k’urunigi rw’inganda rwa aluminium.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-29-2025