Ikirere Cyombi cya Buzimu n'umuriro: Intambara yo gutera imbere muburyo butandukanye bwo gutandukanya isoko rya Aluminium

Ⅰ. Umusaruro urangira: "Kwagura paradox" ya alumina na aluminium electrolytike

1. Alumina: Dilemma y'imfungwa yo gukura kwinshi no kubara byinshi

Dukurikije imibare yaturutse mu kigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe ibarurishamibare, umusaruro wa alumina w’Ubushinwa wageze kuri toni miliyoni 7.475 muri Werurwe 2025 (+ 10.3% umwaka ushize), hamwe n’umusaruro rusange wa toni miliyoni 22.596 mu gihembwe cya mbere (+ 12.0% umwaka ushize). Nubwo umusaruro ukomeje kwiyongera, isoko ryaguye mu bihe bibi byo "kongera umusaruro utarinze kwinjiza"

Kurenza urugero birakomera:Ibarura rusange ry’imbere muri alumina ryarengeje toni miliyoni 3.958, hamwe n’igitutu cyo gufungura idirishya ryinjira mu mahanga (igiciro cya FOB cyo muri Ositaraliya cyamanutse kigera kuri $ 373 / toni), kandi ibiciro by’ibibanza byagabanutse munsi y’umurongo w’amafaranga mu karere ka Shanxi (3250 Yuan / toni).

Umuvuduko wibiciro kugirango ugabanye umusaruro:Ibimera bya Alumina muri Henan, Guizhou no mu tundi turere byatangiye kubungabungwa kubera igihombo cy’amafaranga, bigatuma ukwezi kwa 2.85% ku kwezi kugabanuka kw’ibikorwa kugera kuri toni miliyoni 88.6 ku mwaka muri Werurwe. Icyakora, irekurwa rya toni miliyoni imwe yubushobozi bushya bwo gukora muri Indoneziya ryongereye ubushobozi bw’isi yose.

2. Aluminium ya electrolytike: "uburinganire bukomeye" munsi yubushobozi bwo gukora

Umusaruro wa aluminiyumu ya electrolytike muri Werurwe wari toni miliyoni 3.746 (+ 4.4% umwaka ushize), naho umusaruro wuzuye mu gihembwe cya mbere wari toni miliyoni 11.066 (+ 3,2% umwaka ushize). N’ubwo umusaruro wongeye gutangira mu karere k’amajyepfo ashyira uburengerazuba (hamwe na Yunnan Hongtai ukomeza ubushobozi bwuzuye bwa toni miliyoni 1.5), ubworoherane bwo gutanga butangwa na politiki

Gusimbuza ubushobozi byiganje:Sichuan, Guangxi n'utundi turere twongera umusaruro cyane binyuze mu gusimbuza ubushobozi, mu gihe ubushobozi bwa Baotou Aluminium bukera bwakuweho kugira ngo ubwiyongere bwiyongere, bigatuma umusaruro utangwa neza.

Kugabanuka kw'ibarura byihuta:Mu ntangiriro za Mata, ibarura rusange rya aluminium electrolytike ryaragabanutse kugera kuri toni 744000 (umwaka-ku-mwaka-toni -138000), naho ibarura rya LME naryo ryaragabanutse kugera kuri toni 459000, rishyigikira guhangana n’ibiciro bya aluminium.

Ⅱ. Kuruhande rwibisabwa: "gutanyagura imiterere" hagati yinzira gakondo kandi zigaragara
1. Umwanya gakondo: Kwica kabiri ubwubatsi no kohereza hanze

Urunigi rutimukanwa rukomeje kugabanuka:kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Werurwe, igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa by’amazu y’ubucuruzi cyari mu rwego “rukonje”, ubwubatsi bw’imyubakire y’ubwubatsi bwari 61% gusa, naho ubwiyongere bw’umusaruro wa aluminium (1,3%) bwari hasi cyane ugereranije n’ubwiyongere bw’itangwa rya aluminium electrolytike.

Ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bihura n'ibitero:Ibiciro bya aluminiyumu yo muri Amerika ku Bushinwa byazamutse biva kuri 104% bigera kuri 145%, aho aluminium yohereza muri Mutarama na Gashyantare byagabanutseho 4.5% umwaka ushize. Amasosiyete arahindukira mu bucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa byo mu majyepfo y’iburasirazuba bwa Aziya nkahantu heza.

2. Ingufu nshya ninganda zohejuru: gukenera moteri nshya

Gukura guturika kwaaluminium:Muri Werurwe, umusaruro wa aluminium aluminiyumu wageze kuri toni miliyoni 1.655 (umwaka-ku-mwaka + 16.2%), utwarwa n’ibinyabiziga bito bito by’ingufu (gusimbuza magnesium aluminiyumu byihuse) no gukenera amafoto y’amashanyarazi (byungukirwa na politiki nshya y’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi mu gihugu).
Intambwe imaze guterwa mugutanga ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu yo mu rwego rwo hejuru: Ibikoresho bidasanzwe bya Dongqing byageragejwe neza byatanze umusaruro mwinshi wa magnesium welding wire, ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu ya aluminiyumu ya Longi Corporation byiyongereyeho 35% umwaka ushize, kandi gusimbuza ibicuruzwa mu murima wo mu rwego rwo hejuru byihuta.

.Ibiciro n'Ibiciro: Gusenyuka kwa Alumina na Kwagura Inyungu ya Aluminium ya Electrolytike

1. Kwubaka ibiciro

Okiside ya Aluminiyumu yaguye mu 'rupfu':ibiciro bya bauxite yo mu gihugu byaragabanutse (byagabanutseho 5% ukwezi ku kwezi mu karere ka Jin Yu), ibiciro by’ibikoresho bifasha nka soda ya caustic na makara byagabanutse, kandi ibiciro by’inganda byaragabanutse kugera kuri 3158 Yuan / toni, ariko ibiciro byagabanutse cyane (Ibiciro bya Shanxi byagabanutse munsi ya 3000 Yuan / toni).
Kwagura inyungu yinyungu ya aluminium electrolytike:Umubare wibiciro bya alumina wagabanutse kugera kuri 40% (55% muri 2024), inyungu iremereye yinganda za electrolytike ya aluminium yageze kuri toni 3700, kandi inyungu rusange y’inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi ya Yunnan (nka Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.) yarenze 25%.

2. Kongera itandukaniro ryibiciro

Alumina ihindagurika:Ingaruka z’amasoko ahendutse mu mahanga (Indoneziya yongeraho toni miliyoni 6.5 z’ubushobozi bwo gushora imari) no kurekura ubushobozi bushya bw’umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu (umushinga wa toni miliyoni 2 za Guangxi ugera ku musaruro wuzuye muri Mata) wahagaritse umwanya wongeye kugaruka, kandi ibikorwa biteganijwe mu gihembwe cya kabiri ni 2800-3200 Yuan / toni.

Kwihangana cyane kwa aluminium electrolytike:Ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ya LME bikomeje kuba byiza mu kigero cya 2450-2550 US $ / toni, kandi amasezerano nyamukuru ya aluminium ya Shanghai ashyigikirwa n’ibarura rito hamwe n’ibiteganijwe muri politiki (inkunga yo “kuvugurura ibikoresho mu gihugu”), intego y'igihe gito ikaba 20500 Yuan / toni.

Ⅳ. Ubucuruzi na Politiki mpuzamahanga: Igiciro 'Gray Rhino' no Guhindura Icyatsi
1. Ingaruka zingaruka zUbushinwa Umukino wibiciro muri Amerika

Kuvugurura urwego rwimodoka:Amerika yashyizeho umusoro wa 25% ku modoka zitumizwa mu mahanga, bituma uruganda rwa Tesla rwo muri Mexico rusubika umusaruro. Umubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na aluminium y’Ubushinwa muri Amerika waragabanutse kugera kuri 5% (amasosiyete nka Technology ya Wan'an yihutisha kwimuka ku isoko ry’Uburayi).

Ingamba zo Kwimura Rusal:Mu gihe igihe cy’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi kuri Rusal cyegereje, Rusal yihutisha kwimurira mu bubiko bwa Aziya (kohereza toni 154000 za alumina mu Burusiya muri Werurwe), kandi ibarura rya LME rya Rusal ryazamutse kugera kuri 82%.

2. Kutabogama kwa karubone bitera kuzamura inganda

Porogaramu y'icyitegererezo yo kwemeza ibirenge bya karubone yatangijwe:Impamyabumenyi ya Baise electrolytike ya aluminium ya karubone yashyizwe mu bikorwa, kandi intego yo kongera ingufu za aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa yongerewe kugera kuri toni miliyoni 6 ku mwaka (hamwe na aluminiyumu ya karuboni nkeya ya Alcoa igera kuri 15%).
Umukino wigiciro cyamashanyarazi:Ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe y’iburayi byazamutse bigera ku ma euro 35 / megawatt, kandi kongera umusaruro ku ruganda rwo mu Budage rwa Trimet Aluminum rwatinze. Ihungabana ry’amashanyarazi yo mu ngo muri Yunnan ryabaye ikibazo cyo gutanga isoko.

Ⅴ. Icyerekezo cy'ejo hazaza: Umukino wibiri wikirenga no guhinduka

1. Alumina: Igihombo cyatewe niseswa, wibande kugabanya umusaruro

Niba igiciro gikomeje kuba munsi ya 3000 Yuan / toni, igipimo cyo kugabanya umusaruro mu gihembwe cya kabiri gishobora kugera kuri toni miliyoni 2 / umwaka, ariko ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora muri Indoneziya bushobora gukuraho ingaruka zo kugabanya ibicuruzwa.
Ingamba zingamba: Funga ibiciro byigihe kirekire kubiciro byibanze kandi witondere Ubushinwa Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), ifite ibirombe byayo.

2. Electrolytike aluminium: amahirwe yimiterere munsi yububiko buke hamwe ninyungu za politiki

Ubwiyongere bwa buri mwaka bukenewe ku mbaraga nshya (Photovoltaic + ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu) ni toni 800000 kugeza kuri miliyoni imwe, bikagabanuka kugabanuka mumirima gakondo. Biteganijwe ko igiciro cya aluminiyumu kizakomeza 19500 kugeza 21500 yuan / toni.