Ibicuruzwa byo mu Buyapani byinjira muri aluminiyumu byibasiye imyaka itatu mike, kuvugurura ubucuruzi no kongera umukino-wo gutanga isoko

Ku ya 12 Werurwe 2025, amakuru yashyizwe ahagaragara na Marubeni Corporation yerekanye ko guhera mu mpera za Gashyantare 2025, ibarura rusange rya aluminiyumu ku byambu bitatu bikomeye by’Ubuyapani ryamanutse rigera kuri toni 313400, igabanuka rya 3.5% ugereranije n’ukwezi gushize ndetse n’ikigereranyo gishya kuva muri Nzeri 2022. Muri bo, icyambu cya Yokohama gifite toni 133400 (42,6%), icyambu cya Nagoya gifite toni 163000 (52.000). Aya makuru yerekana ko urwego rwogutanga aluminiyumu ku isi rugenda ruhinduka cyane, hamwe n’ingaruka za geopolitike n’impinduka zikenewe mu nganda zikaba intandaro y’ibanze.

 
Impamvu yibanze yo kugabanuka kububiko bwa aluminiyumu yubuyapani nisubiramo ritunguranye mubisabwa murugo. Inyungu zatewe n’umuriro w'amashanyarazi mu modoka, Toyota, Honda ndetse n'andi masosiyete y'imodoka ziyongereyeho 28% ku mwaka ku mwaka kugura amasoko y'ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu muri Gashyantare 2025, maze isoko rya Tesla Model Y mu Buyapani ryiyongera kugera kuri 12%, bikomeza gukenerwa. Byongeye kandi, gahunda y’ubuyobozi bw’Ubuyapani “Gahunda y’inganda y’inganda” isaba kwiyongera 40% mu gukoreshaibikoresho bya aluminiummu nganda zubaka bitarenze 2027, kuzamura ibigo byubwubatsi kubika hakiri kare.

Icya kabiri, ubucuruzi bwa aluminiyumu ku isi burimo guhinduka muburyo. Bitewe nuko Amerika ishobora gushyiraho imisoro kuri aluminiyumu yatumijwe mu mahanga, abacuruzi b'Abayapani barimo kwihutisha gutwara aluminium ku masoko yo mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya n'Uburayi. Nk’uko imibare yatanzwe na Marubeni Corporation ibivuga, Aluminium yo mu Buyapani yohereza mu bihugu nka Vietnam na Tayilande yiyongereyeho 57% umwaka ushize guhera muri Mutarama kugeza Gashyantare 2025, mu gihe umugabane w’isoko muri Amerika wagabanutse uva kuri 18% muri 2024 ugera kuri 9%. Izi ngamba zo 'kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze' zatumye habaho kugabanuka kw'ibarura ku byambu by'Ubuyapani.

 
Kugabanuka icyarimwe mububiko bwa LME aluminium (bwamanutse kuri toni 142000 ku ya 11 Werurwe, urwego rwo hasi cyane mu myaka hafi itanu) no kugabanuka kw’amadolari y’Amerika kugera ku manota 104.15 (12 Werurwe) byanashimangiye ubushake bw’abatumiza mu Buyapani kwinjiza ibicuruzwa byabo. Ishyirahamwe ry’Abayapani Aluminium rivuga ko igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga cyiyongereyeho 12% ugereranije n’icyo gihe cyo mu 2024, mu gihe igiciro cya aluminiyumu yo mu gihugu cyazamutseho gato 3%. Kugabanuka kw'ibiciro byatumye ibigo bikunda gukoresha ibarura no gutinza amasoko.

 
Mu gihe gito, niba ibarura ry’ibyambu by’Ubuyapani rikomeje kugabanuka munsi ya toni 100000, birashobora gutuma hakenerwa kuzuzwa ububiko bw’ibicuruzwa bya LME muri Aziya, bityo bigashyigikira ibiciro mpuzamahanga bya aluminium. Nyamara, mu gihe giciriritse cyangwa kirekire, ingingo eshatu zishobora kwitabwaho zigomba kwitabwaho: icya mbere, guhindura politiki y’imisoro yoherezwa mu mahanga ya nikel yo muri Indoneziya bishobora kugira ingaruka ku musaruro wa aluminium electrolytike; Icya kabiri, impinduka zitunguranye muri politiki yubucuruzi mbere y’amatora yo muri Amerika zishobora gutera indi ihungabana ry’urwego rutanga aluminium ku isi; Icya gatatu, igipimo cyo kurekura ingufu za aluminium yubushinwa (biteganijwe ko iziyongera kuri toni miliyoni 4 muri 2025) irashobora kugabanya ikibazo cyo gutanga.