Ingufu z'amashanyaraziinganda za aluminiyumuyinjiye mu buryo bushya bwo "gukomera ku gutanga ibicuruzwa + kwihanganira gukenera", kandi ukwiyongera kw'ibiciro gushyigikiwe n'amahame y'ibanze. Morgan Stanley ateganya ko ibiciro bya aluminiyumu bizagera ku madolari 3250 kuri toni mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026, aho ishingiro ry'ingenzi rishingira ku nyungu ebyiri z'icyuho cy'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe ndetse n'ibidukikije binini.
Uruhande rw'ibitangwa: Kwagura ubushobozi ni bike, uburimbane bukomeje kugabanuka
Ubushobozi bw'Ubushinwa bwo gukora aluminiyumu ya elegitoroniki bwageze ku gipimo cya toni miliyoni 45, aho ubushobozi bwo gukora bwa toni miliyoni 43.897 mu 2025 n'igipimo cyo gukoresha cya 97.55%, hafi ku bushobozi bwose, aho toni miliyoni 1 gusa z'ubuso bushya zongeweho.
Ubushobozi bw'umusaruro mu mahanga buragabanuka, aho igipimo cy'ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro kigera kuri 1.5% gusa kuva mu 2025 kugeza 2027. Uburayi bukomeje kugabanya umusaruro bitewe n'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi biri hejuru, mu gihe Amerika ya Ruguru ifite ubushobozi buke bwo kwaguka bitewe n'ihiganwa ry'amashanyarazi mu bigo by'amakuru bya AI. Indoneziya n'Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati gusa bifite ukwiyongera guke ariko bibangamiwe n'ibikorwa remezo.
Impinduka mu bidukikije no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi byazamuye urugero rw'inganda, byongera igipimo cy'amashanyarazi ahumanya ikirere mu Bushinwa no gushyira mu bikorwa imisoro ya karuboni mu Muryango w'Ubumwe bw'u Burayi, birushaho kugabanya ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu bihenze cyane.
Uruhande rw'ibikenewe: Imirima iri kuzamuka irakura, ingano yose iragenda yiyongera buhoro buhoro
Igipimo mpuzandengo cy’izamuka ry’ubukene ku isi muri aluminiyumu ni 2% -3%, kandi byitezwe ko kizagera kuri toni miliyoni 770-78 mu 2026. Inzego zikiri kuzamuka nk’imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu, ububiko bw’ingufu zikomoka kuri photovoltaic, n’ibigo by’amakuru bya AI byabaye imbaraga z’ingenzi.
Ukwiyongera k'umuvuduko w'ingufu zikoreshwa mu modoka nshya byatumye ikoreshwa rya aluminiyumu kuri buri modoka rizamuka (rirenze 30% ugereranyije n'iry'imodoka zikoresha lisansi), kandi kwiyongera k'ubushobozi bwa fotovoltaic buri mwaka ku kigero kirenga 20% byashyigikiye ikenerwa rya aluminiyumu. Ubukene mu bijyanye n'amashanyarazi no gupakira bwakomeje gukurikiraho.
Igipimo cyo gushyira aluminiyumu mu mazi mu buryo butaziguye cyongerewe kigera ku kigero kirenga 90%, bigabanya ubwinshi bw'ingufu za aluminiyumu mu bubiko kandi bikongera ikibazo cy'isoko.
Ibimenyetso bya Macro n'isoko: amajwi menshi meza
Icyizere cy’uko inyungu ku isi izagabanuka kiragaragara, kandi bitewe n’uko idolari rya Amerika rigenda rigabanuka, ibiciro bya aluminiyumu biri mu madolari ya Amerika bifite inkunga isanzwe.
Ubusabe bw'abashoramari ku mitungo ifatika buriyongera, kandi ibyuma bidakoresha feri, nk'amahitamo yo kurwanya izamuka ry'ibiciro no gutanga imitungo itandukanye, birimo gukurura inyungu z'imari.
Igipimo cy'igiciro cy'umuringa/aluminium kiri ku isonga mu bigezweho, kikaba ikimenyetso cy'ingenzi cy'izamuka ry'ibiciro bya aluminiyumu nyuma yaho.
Ingendo z'ejo hazaza: Igaragaza amahirwe y'imiterere
Icyuho cy’ibikenewe mu gutanga ibicuruzwa kirimo kwiyongera buhoro buhoro, kandi Morgan Stanley ateganya ko ibura ry’ibicuruzwa rizagaragara guhera mu 2026, aho ububiko bw’ibikoresho ku isi yose buri ku rwego rwo hasi mu mateka, ibyo bikarushaho kongera ihindagurika ry’ibiciro.
Itandukaniro ry’uturere riri kwiyongera, icyuho cy’ibikenewe mu Bushinwa n’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga kiriyongera uko umwaka utashye, kandi ukwishingikiriza ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga kuriyongera, bigatuma habaho urujya n’uruza rw’ubucuruzi bw’“ibicuruzwa by’agaciro bya aluminiyumu byo mu mahanga → Ubushinwa”.
Inyungu mu nganda zibanda ku bigo bikomeye bifite ingufu zitagira impanuka n’inyungu ku giciro cy’ingufu, mu gihe ubushobozi bw’umusaruro burimo kwerekeza mu turere duhenze nka Indoneziya n’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, ariko iterambere riri buhoro ugereranyije n’uko byari byitezwe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukuboza 19-2025