Itandukanyirizo ryibikoresho bya aluminiyumu n’imbere biragaragara, kandi ivuguruzanya ryimiterere ku isoko rya aluminiyumu rikomeje kwiyongera

Dukurikije imibare y'ibarura rya aluminiyumu yashyizwe ahagaragara n’ivunjisha ry’i Londere (LME) hamwe n’ivunjisha rya Shanghai (SHFE), ku ya 21 Werurwe, ibarura rya aluminium LME ryamanutse rigera kuri toni 483925, rikaba ryaragabanutse cyane kuva muri Gicurasi 2024; Ku rundi ruhande, ibarura rya aluminiyumu ya Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) ryagabanutseho 6.95% buri cyumweru rigera kuri toni 233240, ryerekana uburyo bwo gutandukanya “gukomera hanze kandi birekuye imbere”. Aya makuru aratandukanye cyane n’imikorere ikomeye y’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ya LME ihagaze neza ku madolari 2300 / toni na Shanghai aluminium yamasezerano nyamukuru yazamutseho 20800 yuan / toni kumunsi umwe, byerekana umukino utoroshye wisiinganda za aluminiumurunigi rutangwa nibisabwa kuvugurura no guhatanira geopolitiki.

Amezi icumi yo hasi ya LME ya aluminiyumu ni ibisubizo byumvikanisha amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine na politiki yo kohereza ibicuruzwa muri Indoneziya. Nyuma yo gutakaza isoko ry’iburayi kubera ibihano, Rusal yohereje ibyoherezwa muri Aziya. Ariko, guhagarika ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byashyizwe mu bikorwa na Indoneziya mu 2025 byatumye igabanuka rya alumina ku isi, bituma mu buryo butaziguye ibiciro bya LME aluminium. Amakuru yerekana ko muri Mutarama na Gashyantare 2025, Indoneziya yoherezwa mu mahanga ya bauxite yagabanutseho 32% umwaka ushize, mu gihe ibiciro bya alumina yo muri Ositaraliya byiyongereyeho 18% umwaka ushize bigera ku madolari 3200 / toni, bikomeza kugabanya inyungu z’abashoramari bo mu mahanga. Ku ruhande rusabwa, abakora amamodoka y’iburayi bihutishije kohereza imirongo y’umusaruro mu Bushinwa kugira ngo birinde ingaruka z’imisoro, bituma umwaka wa 210% wiyongera ku mwaka ku mwaka mu Bushinwa butumiza mu mahanga aluminium ya electrolytike (ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bigera kuri toni 610000 muri Mutarama na Gashyantare). Uku 'kwinjiza ibicuruzwa biva hanze' bituma ibarura rya LME ryerekana ibintu byerekana amasoko mpuzamahanga bivuguruzanya.

Kwiyongera kw'ibarura rya aluminiyumu yo mu gihugu cya Shanghai bifitanye isano rya bugufi no kurekura ubushobozi bwo gusohora no guhindura politiki. Kugabanya umusaruro (hafi toni 500000) byatewe no kubura amashanyarazi muri Yunnan, Sichuan n'ahandi ntibyigeze bigaragara neza, mu gihe ubushobozi bushya bwo kongera umusaruro (toni 600000) mu bice bidahenze nka Mongoliya y'imbere na Sinayi byinjiye mu gihe cy'umusaruro. Imikorere ya electrolytike ya aluminiyumu yo mu gihugu yazamutse igera kuri toni miliyoni 42, igera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka. Nubwo ikoreshwa rya aluminiyumu yo mu gihugu ryiyongereyeho 2,3% umwaka ushize ku mwaka muri Mutarama na Gashyantare, urwego rw’imitungo itimukanwa (hamwe n’igabanuka rya 10% ku mwaka ku mwaka mu gice cyuzuye cy’amazu y’ubucuruzi) no kugabanuka kw’ibikoresho byoherezwa mu mahanga (-8% umwaka ushize ku mwaka muri Mutarama na Gashyantare) byatumye ibicuruzwa bisubira inyuma cyane. Twabibutsa ko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’ishoramari ry’ibikorwa remezo mu gihugu muri Werurwe warenze ibyari byitezwe (+ 12.5% ​​umwaka ushize ku mwaka muri Mutarama na Gashyantare), kandi kubika hakiri kare imishinga y’ibikorwa remezo byatumye ukwezi kwa 15% kwiyongera ku kwezi kwiyongera kwa progaramu ya aluminiyumu, ibyo bikaba bisobanura kwihanganira izamuka ry’igihe gito mu bubiko bwa aluminium ya aluminium.

Urebye ibiciro, umurongo wuzuye wibiciro bya aluminium ya electrolytike yo mu gihugu ukomeza kuba uhagaze kuri 16500 yuan / toni, hamwe nibiciro bya anode byabanje gutekwa bikomeza hejuru ya 4300 yuan / toni naho ibiciro bya alumina bikamanuka gato bikagera kuri 2600 / toni. Ku bijyanye n’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi, Mongoliya y’imbere y’inganda zifite amashanyarazi yagabanije ibiciro by’amashanyarazi binyuze mu gihembo cy’amashanyarazi kibisi, bizigama amafaranga arenga 200 kuri toni y’amashanyarazi ya aluminium. Icyakora, ibura ry'amashanyarazi muri Yunnan ryatumye ibiciro by'amashanyarazi byiyongera 10% ku nganda za aluminium zaho, byongera itandukaniro ry'ubushobozi bw'akarere kubera itandukaniro ry'ibiciro.

Ku bijyanye n’imiterere y’imari, nyuma y’inama y’inyungu ya Banki nkuru y’igihugu yo muri Werurwe yashyize ahagaragara ikimenyetso kibi, igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika cyamanutse kigera ku 104.5, gitanga inkunga ku biciro bya aluminiyumu ya LME, ariko gushimangira igipimo cy’ivunjisha ry’Ubushinwa (indangagaciro ya CFETS cyazamutse kigera ku 105.3) byahagaritse amahirwe ya aluminium ya Shanghai yakurikiza.

Muburyo bwa tekiniki, 20800 yuan / ton ni urwego rukomeye rwo guhangana na Shanghai Aluminium. Niba ishobora gucika neza, irashobora gutangiza ingaruka kuri 21000 yuan / toni; Ibinyuranye, niba kugurisha imitungo itimukanwa binaniwe kongera kwiyongera, umuvuduko wo kumanuka uziyongera cyane.