Ku ya 29 Mata 2025, impuzandengo ya A00 aluminium ku isoko ry’umugezi wa Yangtze yavuzwe ku giciro cya 20020 / toni, yiyongera buri munsi 70; Amasezerano nyamukuru ya Shanghai Aluminium, 2506, yarangiye 19930 yuan / toni. Nubwo yahindagurika gato mu isomo rya nijoro, iracyafite urwego rwibanze rwingoboka rwa 19900 yu manywa. Inyuma yiyi nzira yo kuzamuka ni reonance hagati yibarurishamibare ryisi yose rigabanuka kurwego rwamateka no gukaza umurego mumikino ya politiki:
Ibarura rya LME rya aluminiyumu ryaragabanutse kugera kuri toni 417575, mu gihe kitarenze icyumweru cy’iminsi iboneka, kandi n’ibiciro by’ingufu nyinshi mu Burayi (hamwe n’ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe byongeye kugera ku ma euro 35 / megawatt 35) birahagarika iterambere ryo kongera umusaruro.
Ibarura rusange rya Shanghai Aluminium ryaragabanutseho 6.23% kugeza kuri toni 178597 buri cyumweru. Bitewe no gusohora cyane ibikoresho byo mu rugo hamwe n’ibicuruzwa by’imodoka mu karere ka majyepfo, igihembo cy’ikirenga cyarenze 200 Yuan / toni, kandi ububiko bwa Foshan bwagombaga gutonda umurongo iminsi irenga 3 kugira ngo butware ibicuruzwa.
Ⅰ. Gutwara Logic: Gusaba Kwihangana va Kugabanuka
1. Gukenera ingufu nshya bifata iyambere, kandi imirenge gakondo irimo gukira
Ingaruka zanyuma zo kwihutira gushiraho amafoto yerekana amashanyarazi: Muri Mata, umusaruro w’amafoto y’amashanyarazi wiyongereyeho 17% ukwezi ku kwezi, naho ibyifuzo bya aluminiyumu byiyongereyeho 22% umwaka ushize. Ariko, mugihe politiki yegereje muri Gicurasi, ibigo bimwe byarenze ibicuruzwa mbere.
Kwihuta kw’imodoka kwihuta: Umubare wa aluminiyumu ikoreshwa mu binyabiziga bishya by’ingufu kuri buri kinyabiziga warengeje ibiro 350, bigatuma igipimo cy’imikorere ya plaque ya aluminium, strip na foil kuzamuka kugera kuri 82%. Icyakora, muri Mata, umuvuduko w’iterambere ry’igurisha ry’imodoka wagabanutse kugera kuri 12%, kandi ingaruka zo kugwiza ubucuruzi muri politiki zaragabanutse.
Umurongo w'urufatiro rw'amashanyarazi: Icyiciro cya kabiri cya Leta ya Grid ya ultra-high voltage yo gupiganira ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu ni toni 143000, kandi inganda za kabili za aluminiyumu zikora ku bushobozi bwuzuye, zunganira umusaruro wa aluminium kugirango ukomeze imyaka itanu.
2. Kuruhande rwibiciro, hari ibintu bibiri bikabije: urubura numuriro
Umuvuduko wa alumina urenze uragaragara: kongera umusaruro mu birombe bya Shanxi byatumye igiciro cya bauxite gisubira ku madolari 80 / toni, igiciro cya alumina cyamanutse munsi ya 2900 / toni, igiciro cya aluminium electrolytike cyamanutse kigera kuri 16500 / toni, kandi inyungu y’inganda yagutse igera kuri 3700 / toni.
Icyatsi kibisi cya aluminiyumu: Yunnan hydropower aluminium toni igiciro ni 2000 yu munsi ugereranije n’amashanyarazi, kandi inyungu rusange y’inganda nka Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. irenga inganda zingana n’amanota 5 ku ijana, byihutisha gukuraho ingufu z’amashanyarazi.
Ⅱ. Umukino wa Macro: Politiki 'inkota ityaye' itandukanya ibyateganijwe ku isoko
1. Politiki yiterambere ryimbere mu gihugu irinda ingaruka ziterwa nibisabwa hanze
Kubaka hagati y’ibikorwa remezo: Komisiyo y’igihugu ishinzwe iterambere n’ivugurura irateganya gutanga urutonde rw’imishinga “ibiri” umwaka wose mbere y’ukwezi kwa Kamena, bikaba biteganijwe ko iziyongera rya toni 500000 mu gukoresha aluminium.
Ibiteganijwe kuri politiki y’ifaranga ridahwitse: Banki nkuru y’igihugu yatangaje ko “kugabanya ku gihe igipimo cy’ibisabwa ku nyungu n’igipimo cy’inyungu”, kandi ibyifuzo by’imikoreshereze idahwitse byatumye amafaranga yinjira mu isoko ry’ibicuruzwa.
2. Mu mahanga 'umukara wirabura' kwiyongera
Politiki y’ibiciro by’Amerika muri Amerika: gushyiraho 70%ibicuruzwa bya aluminiumkuva mu Bushinwa guhagarika ibyoherezwa mu mahanga mu buryo butaziguye, bigira ingaruka ku buryo butaziguye iminyururu y'inganda nk'ibikoresho byo mu rugo n'ibice by'imodoka. Ikigereranyo gihamye cyerekana ko aluminium igaragara muri Amerika ari 2,3%.
Intege nke mu Burayi: Umubare w’abiyandikishije mu modoka nshya mu bihugu by’Uburayi mu gihembwe cya mbere wagabanutseho 1,9% umwaka ushize, kandi iyongera ry’umusaruro wa Trimet mu Budage ryahagaritse umwanya wa aluminium ya Londres. Igipimo cy’ivunjisha rya Londres cya Shanghai cyazamutse kigera kuri 8.3, naho igihombo cyatumijwe mu mahanga kirenga 1000 Yuan / toni.
Ⅲ. Intambara yo gutera inkunga: imbaraga nyamukuru gutandukana zirakomera, kuzenguruka umurenge byihuta
Intambara ndende ku isoko ry'ejo hazaza: Amasezerano nyamukuru ya Shanghai Aluminium yagabanutseho ubufindo 10393 kumunsi, imyanya ndende ya Yong'an Futures yagabanutseho ubufindo 12000, imyanya migufi ya Guotai Jun'an yiyongereyeho ubufindo 1800, kandi imyumvire yo kwirinda ingaruka zamafaranga yarashyushye.
Isoko ryimigabane rifite itandukaniro rigaragara: urwego rwa aluminiyumu rwazamutseho 1.05% kumunsi umwe, ariko Inganda za Aluminium Ubushinwa zagabanutseho 0,93%, mugihe inganda za Nanshan Aluminium zazamutseho 5.76% ugereranije n’iki cyerekezo, aho amafaranga yibanze muri aluminiyumu y’amashanyarazi n’abayobozi bashinzwe gutunganya ibicuruzwa byo mu rwego rwo hejuru.
Ⅳ. Icyerekezo cy'ejo hazaza: Isoko rya pulse iringaniye
Igihe gito (amezi 1-2)
Imihindagurikire y’ibiciro: Gushyigikirwa n’ibarura rito hamwe n’ibisabwa nyuma yo kuzuza ibiruhuko, Shanghai Aluminium irashobora kugerageza urwego rw’umuvuduko w’amafaranga 20300, ariko hagomba kwitonderwa kwirinda izamuka ry’amadolari y’Amerika ryatewe no gutinda kugabanuka kw’inyungu za Banki nkuru y’igihugu.
Impanuka zishobora guterwa: Impinduka zitunguranye muri politiki ya bauxite yohereza ibicuruzwa muri Indoneziya hamwe n’ikibazo cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa byatewe n’ibihano bya aluminiyumu y’Uburusiya bishobora guteza ibyago byo kubika ku gahato.
Hagati kugeza igihe kirekire (igice cya kabiri cya 2025)
Ubusanzwe uburinganire buringaniye: Kwiyongera k'ubushobozi bwa aluminium ya electrolytike ku isi ntibiri munsi ya toni miliyoni imwe ku mwaka, kandi ingufu z'ingufu nshya ziyongera kuri toni 800000 ku mwaka, bikagorana guca icyuho.
Kongera kubaka agaciro k'uruganda: Igipimo cyo gukoresha aluminiyumu itunganyirizwa hejuru ya 85%, kandi tekinoroji ihuriweho n’urupfu yatumye inyungu rusange itunganywa igera kuri 20%. Ibigo bifite inzitizi zikoranabuhanga bizayobora icyiciro gikurikira cyiterambere.
[Ibyatanzwe mu ngingo biva kuri interineti, kandi ibitekerezo bireba gusa kandi ntibikoreshwa nk'ishoramari]
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-06-2025